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Cash Isn’t Dead. But Bad Forecasting Might be Killing Your ROI

Sep 16, 2025Strategy

Picture this: It’s payday weekend, and your member stops by to grab some quick cash from your flagship ATM. But instead of crisp twenties, they’re met with a flashing “Out of Service” message.

From a member’s perspective, it’s a frustrating moment. From your institution’s perspective, it’s something more serious: a breakdown in operational trust and a preventable drag on performance. At the center of that disruption? Poor cash forecasting.

The unseen balance sheet burden

Cash still matters—especially when it’s not there. Making sure cash is available exactly when and where your members need it goes beyond simple convenience; it’s a direct reflection of your operational reliability and financial stewardship. Too little cash? You risk member dissatisfaction and lost trust. Too much? You’re incurring unnecessary vault fees and tying up capital that could be working harder elsewhere. That’s where intelligent forecasting comes into play.


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The power of behavioral data

Most institutions still rely on historical averages to project cash demand.

But member behavior isn’t static.

A dynamic forecasting system is designed to account for:

  • Seasonality and transaction cycles
  • Local market behaviors and payday patterns
  • Event-based spikes
  • Real-world movement trends

At LEVEL5, we analyze mobile phone movement data to understand where your members actually live, work, and shop. This behavioral insight—combined with transaction trends and usage patterns—helps identify where demand is naturally concentrated.

Predictive maintenance

This is all about making sure your machines are ready to deliver. That’s where predictive maintenance comes into play. By leveraging sensors, software, and service data, you can anticipate and resolve disruptions before they affect your members.

Whether it’s a card reader trending toward failure, a bill dispenser showing signs of wear, or a temperature warning that could lead to a shutdown, many of these issues can be addressed proactively.

Calibrate your investment, optimize your return

Too many institutions still treat ATM operations as a background utility—important, but invisible. The reality? Every empty machine, every out-of-service alert, is a moment of friction in the member journey. And those moments add up.

Treat cash forecasting as the growth lever it is. When driven by data and executed with precision, it reduces operational drag, minimizes service disruptions, and delivers a consistent, brand-forward experience your members can rely on.

This article first appeared on CUInsight.com